This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Read online

  in financial turbulence index, 407n6

  during global crises, 269

  origins of concept, 398n9

  in Second Great Contraction, 240, 245

  in U.S. subprime crisis, 222

  sustainable debt, establishment of, 26, 30

  Swaziland: banking crises in, 383t

  debt reversals in, 84b

  Sweden: banking crises in, 159, 231, 383–84t

  currency debasement in, 177

  duration of crises in, 235

  inflation crises in, 185

  Switzerland: banking crises in, 384t

  recession of 1990s in, 230

  synchronicity, cross-country, of global financial crises, 260, 265–69

  systemic banking crises: aftermath of, 165, 166–67, 223–25

  bank runs in, 144

  definition of, 10, 11t

  exchange rate crises in, 145

  as relic of past, xxxii, 141. See also banking crises

  Taiwan: banking crises in, 385t

  inflation crises in, 185

  sovereign risk rating of, 284

  Tajikistan, banking crises in, 385t

  Tanzania, banking crises in, 385t

  taxation: financial repression as form of, 143

  inflation as form of, 124–25, 400n7

  tax revenues: in aftermath of crises, 224, 232

  banking crises’ effects on, 142, 166–69, 224, 232

  technological innovation, negative effects of, 179

  technology industry bubble, xlv, 162, 171

  Templars, 69b

  tesobonos: in de-dollarization, 193–95

  in Mexican domestic default, 14, 64, 108, 108b–109b, 193–95

  Thailand: banking crises in, 385–86t

  debt crisis of 1990s in, 18, 394n11

  debt reversals in, 84b

  as default virgin, 44

  domestic debt in, foreign currency–linked, 108, 109b

  duration of crises in, 235

  financial turbulence index for, 259

  housing prices in, 159

  third parties: gaming of, 62

  in partial default, 62, 397n16. See also international institutions

  this-time-is-different syndrome, 15–20

  confidence in, xxxix, 15

  definition of, xxxiv, 1, 15, 210

  historical examples of, 15–20, 171–72

  and inflation crises, 187, 291

  latest version of, 290–92

  origins of term, xxxvii, 394n10

  persistence of, xxxiv–xxxv, 287

  promoters of, xxxiv

  in Second Great Contraction, 20, 290–92

  universality of, 287

  in U.S. subprime crisis, 20, 171–72, 203, 208–10, 213–15

  time series, macroeconomic, 295–326

  Togo, banking crises in, 386t

  too big to fail, U.S. as, 405n33

  total public debt: data on, 41–42, 330–34t

  definition of, 9b

  domestic debt as share of, average, 41, 103–5, 104f, 105f

  ratios to revenue, at time of external default, 120–23, 120t, 121f, 122f

  trade, international: data on, 320–22t

  effects of default on, 57

  in global financial crises, 263–64, 265f, 266–70, 266f, 267f

  partial default and, 62, 397n16

  trade balance. See current account balance

  transfer of debt, odious debt doctrine on, 63–64

  transmission of crises, 248. See also contagion

  transparency: and crises of confidence, xliv

  in public debt, lack of, xxxi, xxxiii–xxxiv, xliv, 137–38, 281–82

  Trinidad and Tobago, banking crises in, 386t

  Tunisia, banking crises in, 386t

  external default by, 92

  turbulence index. See financial turbulence index

  Turkey: banking crises in, 386t

  currency debasement in, 177, 179

  external default by, 54, 83b, 94

  inflation crises in, 185

  sovereign risk rating of, 287

  twin crises, 270

  Uganda, banking crises in, 386t

  Ukraine, banking crises in, 386–87t

  UN. See United Nations

  underemployment, 405n5

  unemployment: in aftermath of crises, 224, 227–29, 229f

  in Great Depression, 225, 228, 237, 268–69, 269t

  international comparison of, 228–29, 268–69, 405n5

  United Kingdom: banking crises in, 141, 150, 158, 387–88t

  bank runs in, xl–xli

  Barings crisis of 1890 in, 242

  currency debasement in, 177

  current account balance in, 244

  as default virgin, 44

  as financial center, 260b

  housing prices in, 159

  inflation crises in, 182. See also Britain; England

  United Nations (UN): Department of Economic Affairs, 41, 124f

  on domestic public debt, 104f, 105, 105f, 106f, 107t

  on national accounts, 39

  on public debt, 41, 121f, 122f, 123f

  Statistical Yearbook, 124f, 328t, 329t, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t

  United States: banking crises in, 141, 150, 158, 206, 226, 389–90t

  current account balance of, 200, 208–15

  as default virgin, 44

  domestic debt in, 400n5

  duration of crises in, 235, 237

  as financial center, 260b

  financial industry bubbles in, 162

  gunboat diplomacy of, 54, 83b

  housing prices in, 159, 207, 207f, 402n25

  inflation crises in, xxxii–xxxiii, 180, 185

  liberalization in, 156

  in Mexican domestic default, 14, 108b

  presidential election of 2008 in, 53

  savings and loan crisis of 1984 in, 215

  as too big to fail, 405n33

  trade during global crises, 264

  transparency in, lack of, 137–38, 282

  United States subprime crisis of 2007, 199–222

  aftermath of, 222, 405n33

  antecedents of, 215–22

  bank runs in, 145

  confidence in, xli

  contagion of, 240–47

  current account balance before, debate over, 200, 208–15

  global historical context for, 204–8

  versus Great Depression, 200–201

  housing prices in, 207–8, 207f, 226

  illiquid assets in, 90

  indicators of, xxix, xliii, 200, 216–22

  versus postwar crises, 215–22, 216t, 225–30

  presidential election of 2008 in, 53

  press reactions to, 199

  run-up to, xxix, xliii, 200, 208–15

  start of, 206, 213

  this-time-is-different syndrome in, 20, 171–72, 203, 208–10, 213–15

  transparency in, lack of, 282. See also Great Contraction, Second

  Uruguay: Argentine crises and, 407n12

  banking crises in, 206, 391t

  Brady bonds in, 84b, 85b

  debt crisis of 1990s and early 2000s in, 19

  domestic debt in, 399n2

  financial turbulence index for, 250

  usury laws, 69b

  valuation, in this-time-is-different syndrome, xxxiv, 1, 15, 210, 281, 287

  Venezuela: banking crises in, 391t

  external default by, 67, 92, 98

  inflation crises in, 187

  U.S. gunboat diplomacy in, 54

  Vietnam: banking crises in, 392t

  Brady bonds in, 84b

  virgins, default, 44, 45–46t

  wage flexibility, 229

  war(s): currency debasement during, 6, 177, 178f

  default after failure in, 70b

  domestic public debt during, 65

  global crises during, 270

  short-term financing of, 70b. See also specifi
c wars

  WEO. See World Economic Outlook

  Wile E. Coyote moment, 211, 404n17

  World Bank, 394n3

  on best practices, 401n10

  in debt crisis of 1990s, 94

  Global Development Finance (GDF), 23t, 24t, 25t, 27t, 40–41, 42, 332t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 341t

  on national accounts, 39

  on public debt, 40–41

  World Economic Outlook (WEO), IMF, 25f, 35, 36, 40, 78f, 131f, 132f, 134f, 135f, 165f, 166f, 214, 219f, 220f, 231t, 262, 263, 263f, 264f, 266f, 296t, 297t, 298t, 299t, 300t, 301t, 307t, 308t, 310t, 320t, 321t, 322t, 323t, 394n2, 400n2, 405n7, 407n15

  World Economic Survey, League of Nations, 263, 266f, 268t, 269t, 407n18

  World War I: banking crises in, 205

  inflation crises before, 5

  this-time-is-different syndrome after, 15–17

  World War II: banking crises after, 215–16, 216t

  in financial turbulence index, 255

  inflation crises before versus after, 4–5

  this-time-is-different syndrome before, 15–17

  Yearbook, UN, 124f, 328t, 329t, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t

  Yemen, banking crises in, 392t

  Zambia, banking crises in, 392t

  Zimbabwe: banking crises in, 392t

  currency conversions in, 6–7, 7t

  inflation crises in, 5, 185, 187