Daniel S Markey Read online

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  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

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  No Exit from Pakistan

  America’s Tortured Relationship

  with Islamabad

  DANIEL S. MARKEY

  A Council on Foreign Relations Book

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

  www.cambridge.org

  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

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  More information

  32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, ny 10013-2473, usa

  Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.

  It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of

  education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

  www.cambridge.org

  Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107623590

  © Daniel S. Markey 2013

  This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

  and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,

  no reproduction of any part may take place without the written

  permission of Cambridge University Press.

  First published 2013

  Printed in the United States of America

  A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

  Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

  Markey, Daniel Seth, 1973– author.

  No exit from Pakistan : America’s tortured relationship with Islamabad / Daniel S. Markey.

  pages : maps ; cm

  Includes bibliographical references and index.

  isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 (hardback : alkaline paper) – isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 (paperback) 1. United States – Foreign relations – Pakistan.

  2. Pakistan – Foreign relations – United

  States. 3. Anti-Americanism – Pakistan. 4. Pakistan – Politics and government.

  5. Pakistan – Strategic aspects.

  I. Title.

  e183.8.p18m375

  2013

  327.7305491–dc23

  2013019456

  isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 Hardback

  isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 Paperback

  Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party Internet websites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

  The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

  www.cambridge.org

  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

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  More information

  No Exit from Pakistan

  America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad

  This book tells the story of the tragic and often tormented relation-

  ship between the United States and Pakistan. Pakistan’s internal trou-

  bles have already threatened U.S. security and international peace, and

  Pakistan’s rapidly growing population, nuclear arsenal, and relation-

  ships with China and India will continue to force it upon America’s

  geostrategic map in new and important ways over the coming decades.

  This book explores the main trends in Pakistani society that will help

  determine its future; traces the wellsprings of Pakistani anti-American

  sentiment through the history of U.S.-Pakistan relations from 1947

  to 2001; assesses how Washington made and implemented policies

  regarding Pakistan since the terrorist attacks on the United States on

  September 11, 2001; and analyzes how regional dynamics, especially

  the rise of China, will likely shape U.S.-Pakistan relations. It concludes

  with three options for future U.S. strategy, described as defensive insu-

  lation, military-first cooperation, and comprehensive cooperation. The

  book explains how Washington can prepare for the worst, aim for the

  best, and avoid past mistakes.

  Daniel S. Markey is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations

  (CFR), where he specializes in security and governance issues in South

  Asia. From 2003 to 2007, Dr. Markey held the South Asia portfolio on

  the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State.

  Prior to government service, he taught in the Department of Politics

  at Princeton University, where he also served as executive director of

  Princeton’s Research Program in International Security. Dr. Markey

  earned his bachelor’s degree in international studies from the Johns

  Hopkins University and his doctorate in politics from Princeton Uni-

  versity. He completed a postdoctoral fellowship at Harvard Univer-

  sity’s Olin Institute for Strategic Studies. Dr. Markey served as project

  director of the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force Report on U.S.

  Strategy in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2010). He has published articles

  in Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, The American Interest, Foreign Policy, and Security Studies among other journals. His commen-

  tary has been featured in many newspapers, including the New York

  Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and International Herald Tribune. He has been awarded grants from the

  MacArthur and Smith Richardson foundations to support his research,

  including regular trips to Pakistan and elsewhere in Asia.

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

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  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

  Frontmatter

  More information

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  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

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  A Council on Foreign Relations Book

  The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan mem-

  bership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource

  for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educa-

  tors and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in

  order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices

  facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, the CFR carries

  out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs

  to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign

  policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in

  Washington, D.C., and oth
er cities where senior government officials, mem-

  bers of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with

  CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a

  Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to

  produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign

  policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign

  Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings

  and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and pro-

  viding up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American

  foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org.

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

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  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

  Frontmatter

  More information

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

  www.cambridge.org

  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

  Frontmatter

  More information

  No Exit from Pakistan

  America’s Tortured Relationship

  with Islamabad

  DANIEL S. MARKEY

  A Council on Foreign Relations Book

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

  www.cambridge.org

  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

  Frontmatter

  More information

  32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, ny 10013-2473, usa

  Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.

  It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of

  education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

  www.cambridge.org

  Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107623590

  © Daniel S. Markey 2013

  This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception

  and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,

  no reproduction of any part may take place without the written

  permission of Cambridge University Press.

  First published 2013

  Printed in the United States of America

  A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

  Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

  Markey, Daniel Seth, 1973– author.

  No exit from Pakistan : America’s tortured relationship with Islamabad / Daniel S. Markey.

  pages : maps ; cm

  Includes bibliographical references and index.

  isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 (hardback : alkaline paper) – isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 (paperback) 1. United States – Foreign relations – Pakistan.

  2. Pakistan – Foreign relations – United

  States. 3. Anti-Americanism – Pakistan. 4. Pakistan – Politics and government.

  5. Pakistan – Strategic aspects.

  I. Title.

  e183.8.p18m375

  2013

  327.7305491–dc23

  2013019456

  isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 Hardback

  isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 Paperback

  Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party Internet websites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

  The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

  www.cambridge.org

  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

  Frontmatter

  More information

  Contents

  Maps

  page ix

  Acknowledgments

  xi

  1

  No Exit

  1

  2

  The Four Faces of Pakistan

  29

  3

  Why Do They Hate Us?

  72

  4

  U-Turn to Drift: U.S.-Pakistan Relations during the

  Musharraf Era

  105

  5

  Great Expectations to Greater Frustrations: U.S.-Pakistan

  Relations after Musharraf

  136

  6

  From the Outside-In: U.S.-Pakistan Relations in the

  Regional Context

  169

  7

  America’s Options

  200

  Index

  239

  vii

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  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

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  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

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  More information

  Maps

  TURKMENISTAN

  C H I N A

  Gilgit-

  Siachen

  N

  Baltistan

  Glacier

  A

  a

  Azad

  T

  Kashmir

  L

  I S

  Kabul

  INE

  Abbottabad

  OF CONTROL

  N

  Torkham

  aktunkhw

  A

  Jammu and

  Federally

  Peshawar

  H

  Administered

  Islamabad

  Kashmir

  G

  Tribal Areas

  Rawalpindi

  F

  (FATA)

  yber P

  A

  h

  K

  sud

  Wagah

  Kandahar

  In

  Faisalabad

  Lahore

  P u n j a b

  Chaman

  Quetta

  C hagai Hills

  B a l o c h i s t a n

  I R A N

  dus

  In

  Sindh

  I N D I A

  Hyderabad

  Gwadar

  Karachi

  0

  100

  200

  300

  400 km

  A r a b i a n S e a

  0

  50

  100

  150

  200

  250 miles

  Pakistan.

  ix

  © in this web service Cambridge University Press

  www.cambridge.org

  Cambridge University Press

  978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey

  Frontmatter
/>   More information

  1000 km

  s

  Dhaka

  Guwahati

  Chittagong

  Lhasa

  AN

  500 miles

  s

  DESH

  a

  750

  Thimphu

  Bay of

  BHUT

  BANGLA-

  Bengal

  n

  a rt

  i

  u p a

  y

  Ganges

  a

  m h

  Kolkata

  500

  t

  a r B

  n

  250

  a

  Patna

  ishakhapatnam

  u

  ibet

  Katmandu

  Cuttack

  V

  o

  T

  250

  l

  M

  CHINA

  AL

  aranasiV

  Plateau of

  NEP

  a

  0

  0

  n

  Lucknow

  u

  l

  Nagpur

  m

  n

  Allahabad

  Hyderabad

  Khotan

  nges

  Desert

  u

  a

  akla Makan

  i

  G

  Kanpur

  T

  Bhopal

  K

  Meerut

  Aksai Chin

  INDIA

  H

  Agra

  korum

  AN

  Delhi

  ra

  a

  Amritsar

  t

  Srinagar

  r

  Pune

  Kashgar

  K

  Ludhiana

  e

  Indore

  s e

  Jaipur

  s

  D

  Surat

  r

  N

  Islamabad

  i

  r a

  A

  m

  h T

  KYRGYZST

  T

  a

  Lahore

  t

  IS

  P

  Rawalpindi

  Multan

  a e r G

  JIK

  Mumbai

  A

  Faisalabad

  T

  Rajkot

  Ahmedabad

  h su

  Peshawar

  K

  Kabul

  Dushanbe

  u

  AN

  Hyderabad

  s u

  d

  d n

  AN

  n i

  AN

  I

  ashkent

  Quetta

  T

  H

  AKIST

  Kandahar

  d

  P

  n a

  Karachi

  UZBEKIST

  Samarkand

  m l e H

  AFGHANIST

  Herat

  Sea