Analog Science Fiction and Fact Read online

  Vol. CXXXVIII Nos. 1 & 2

  Next Issue on Sale

  January/February 2018

  February 20, 2018

  SERIAL

  THE QUANTUM MAGICIAN, Part I, Derek Künsken ________________________ 8

  NOVELLA

  BLURRED LIVES, Adam-Troy Castro __________________________________ 160

  NOVELETTES

  THE JOURNEYMAN: THROUGH MADNESS GAP, Michael F. Flynn __________ 66

  ENDLESS CITY, David Gerrold ______________________________________ 119

  SHORT STORIES

  HOBSON’S CHOICES, Mary A. Turzillo _________________________________ 87

  TEN AND TEN, Alan Dean Foster _____________________________________ 95

  ONE TO WATCH, Andrew Barton _____________________________________ 102

  HOME ON THE FREE RANGE, Holly Schofield _________________________ 108

  WHEN THE ALIENS STOP TO BOTTLE, Ian Watson _____________________ 133

  TWO POINT THREE CHILDREN, Marissa Lingen________________________ 139

  AIR GAP, Eric Cline _______________________________________________ 144

  THE DISSONANT NOTE, Jeremiah Tolbert _____________________________ 150

  108

  133

  SCIENCE FACT

  HELL IS OTHER PLANETS, Julie Novakova _____________________________ 60

  PROBABILITY ZERO

  MARGIN OF ERROR, Paul Carlson ___________________________________ 100

  POETRY

  ATOMIC NUMBERS, D.A. Xiaolin Spires _______________________________ 142

  WIFE OF A PARTICLE PHYSICIST, Bruce Boston _______________________ 189

  READER’S DEPARTMENTS

  GUEST EDITORIAL: EDUCATIONAL CHALLENGE, Stanley Schmidt __________ 4

  IN TIMES TO COME_______________________________________________ 104

  THE ALTERNATE VIEW, John G. Cramer ______________________________ 105

  THE REFERENCE LIBRARY, Don Sakers______________________________ 190

  BRASS TACKS ___________________________________________________ 197

  THE 2017 INDEX _________________________________________________ 200

  ANALYTICAL LABORATORY BALLOT ________________________________ 203

  UPCOMING EVENTS, Anthony Lewis _________________________________ 204

  Trevor Quachri Editor

  Emily Hockaday Associate Editor

  Cover design by Victoria Green

  Cover Art by Josh Meehan for

  Indicia on Page 5

  The Quantum Magician

  GUEST EDITORIAL Stanley Schmidt

  EDUCATIONAL CHALLENGE

  t may have been Daniel Patrick Moynihan

  new administration have no understanding of

  who first said, “Everyone is entitled to his

  the difference between fact and opinion.

  own opinion, but not to his own facts”—

  And that kind of ignorance, in such high

  Ian observation that has recently taken on a places, threatens everybody—at least in this new and frightening kind of relevance and ur-country, and maybe worldwide.

  gency.

  One undeniable fact is one on which I must

  Last year, months before the presidential

  agree with the “Give him a chance” crowd:

  election,1 I pointed out some disturbing paral-

  we do have a new administration, and, like it

  lels between what was happening in the cam-

  or not, we’re going to have to deal with it,

  paign and one of the darkest chapters in hu-

  probably for at least four years. That adminis-

  man histor y (and a cautionar y novel by

  tration is headed by a man who has said, pub-

  Sinclair Lewis). I’m not going to retract any-

  licly and apparently in all seriousness, that cli-

  thing I said there—if anything, we’re now far-

  mate change caused by human activity is “just

  ther down the road I feared we were starting

  weather” or even “a Chinese hoax.” A man

  down, and still picking up steam—but that

  who has again stirred up long-discredited fears

  threat is not my subject today. I still hope to be

  about vaccination causing autism, and pro-

  proved wrong about the concerns I expressed

  posed wasting time and public money revisit-

  then, but even if that happens, there’s anoth-

  ing a controversy that should have been laid to

  er concern of a different sort, but no less im-

  rest years ago. And a man who has surround-

  portant.

  ed himself with advisors who show just as lit-

  People who are happy with the election

  tle regard for, or understanding of, scientific

  outcome like to remind us that it’s over. We

  facts as he does.

  have a new president, they tell us, and it’s

  For these are matters of fact, not opinion,

  time to give him a chance and see what he can

  and pretending otherwise puts everyone at

  do. That sounds to me a lot like finding a bur-

  risk—not just within our artificial borders, but

  glar in your house and saying, “Let’s keep him

  well beyond.

  around; maybe he’ll be a good security guard.”

  Vaccination, for example. There has been

  But that’s just my opinion. I can’t give you

  opposition to vaccines for about as long as

  hard data to prove that he will cause any large-

  there have been vaccines, but probably the

  scale, long-term damage to the country; and

  most influential example was a 1998 paper

  nobody else can give hard data to prove that

  published in T he Lancet by Dr. Andrew

  he won’t. We all have to form our own opin-

  Wakefield speculating on a connection be-

  ions about what’s likely to happen, based on

  tween measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and

  our own observations and interpretations.

  autism. The subject was so provocative it stim-

  But not everything is like that. Some things

  ulated a lot of research to confirm or refute its

  are objectively a particular way, we have

  conclusions, and within a short time its hy-

  sound reasons (based on evidence and logic)

  pothesis had been overwhelmingly discredit-

  to believe that we have a good idea what that

  ed by many follow-up studies. The Lancet re-

  way is, and believing otherwise won’t change

  tracted the article and Wakefield was

  it. That’s the threat I’m concerned with today:

  punished for professional misconduct, but to

  there is abundant evidence that many in the

  this day many people are still scared off of

  1

  “Haunting Echoes,” Analog, October 2016 (written in April), pp. 4-6.

  4

  JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2018

  needed vaccinations by a vague acquaintance

  even just a few years ago, and there may not

  with the original panic and none with the sub-

  be much time to make the necessary changes.

  sequent refutations.

  I think I first encountered the concept of the

  At the very least, withholding vaccinations

 
“greenhouse cliff”—the idea that positive

  from children is arguably child abuse, but it’s

  feedback could bring on climate change much

  far more than that. Where significant numbers

  more abruptly than previously supposed—in

  of parents do it, it breaks down herd immuni-

  Ben Bova’s novel The Precipice, 2 but now I

  ty and leads to renewed outbreaks of diseases

  read and hear about it in the daily news. Pre-

  that had been so well controlled that few even

  tending that there’s still significant doubt

  remember them. With the present high mobil-

  about it, and backing off from efforts to slow

  ity of people all over the world, an outbreak in

  it down in the name of creating jobs, can only

  one area can easily spread to others far re-

  make it worse—possibly too much worse to

  moved. A government that encourages

  keep it from getting completely out of control.

  groundless fears contributes actively to the

  Besides, plenty of jobs would be created by

  possibility of new and thoroughly preventable

  a serious effort to find good ways to head it

  epidemics.

  off. They wouldn’t be as familiar as the old

  Climate change is perhaps an even more

  jobs, but they’d be a lot more sustainable.

  egregious and urgent example. Our new pres-

  But what, you may ask, if the few scientists

  ident and his advisors persist in calling it “con-

  who still doubt the reality of the climate prob-

  troversial” and calling for the weakening of en-

  lem, or believe in the vaccination-autism link,

  vironmental protections in the name of Job

  are right? Just because a majority of people be-

  Creation, but creating jobs that threaten long-

  lieve something doesn’t necessarily prove it’s

  term survival is shortsighted in the extreme.

  right.

  And calling climate change controversial is

  Quite true, and that’s not how science

  only marginally less ridiculous than calling the

  works. It isn’t a popularity contest, like pick-

  non-flatness of Earth controversial. Yes, it’s

  ing a homecoming king or queen in high

  possible to find people, some of them even

  school, or even the president of a country (or

  sporting scientific credentials, who deny the

  an immigration policy). Elections like that are

  reality of climate change—but an overwhelm-

  designed to determine what a majority of a

  ing number of those who have studied the

  group of people prefers. Science, on the other

  problem in detail find it nearly impossible to

  hand, tries to determine how the Universe

  doubt that it’s happening and it’s largely

  works, and that is not and cannot be deter-

  caused by human activities that can and must

  mined by a vote of arrogant mortals. The Uni-

  be modified.

  verse is what it is, and the job of science is to

  Furthermore, there’s considerable evidence

  develop the most accurate possible descrip-

  that it’s happening faster than they expected

  tion of it, which can in turn be used to make

  2

  Serialized here in May through September 2001, and published in hardcover by Tor Books in October 2001.

  Analog Science Fiction and Fact (Astounding), Vol. CXXXVIII, Nos. 1 & 2, January/February 2018. ISSN 1059-2113, USPS 488-910, GST#123054108.

  Published monthly except for combined January/February and July/August double issues by Dell Magazines, a division of Crosstown Publications. One-year subscription $55.90 in the United States and possessions, in all other countries $65.90 (GST included in Canada), payable in advance in U.S. funds. First copy of new subscription will be mailed within eight weeks of receipt of order. When reporting change of address allow 6 to 8 weeks and give new address as well as the old address as it appears on the last label. Periodical postage paid at Norwalk, CT and additional mailing offices. Canadian postage paid at Montreal, Quebec, Canada Post International Publications Mail, Product Sales Agreement No. 40012460. (c) 2017 by Dell Magazines, a division of Crosstown Publications, all rights reserved. Dell is a trademark registered in the U.S. Patent Office. Protection secured under the Universal Copyright Convention. Reproduction or use of editorial or pictorial content in any manner without express permission is prohibited. All stories in this magazine are fiction. No actual persons are designated by name or character. Any similarity is coincidental. All submissions must be accompanied by a stamped self-addressed envelope, the publisher assumes no responsibility for unsolicited manuscripts or artwork.

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  5

  ANALOG

  more or less accurate predictions about it. We

  fine for relatively slow-moving objects, but as

  may never have a perfect description, but we

  speeds became higher and higher, its predic-

  keep inching toward better and better ones.

  tions became less and less accurate. Relativity,

  The description, or model, most widely ac-

  radically different though its description of the

  cepted at any time represents a consensus, not

  Universe is, gives answers practically indistin-

  of the general public (who may form opinions

  guishable from Newtonian at low velocities,

  based on anything or nothing), but of a large

  but continues to work well at much higher

  number of people who have undergone rigor-

  speeds.

  ous training in a field, done original work to try

  So if the best science you have tells you

  to further improve our understanding of it, and

  you’re going to be in big trouble if you don’t

  are constantly reviewing each other’s work,

  start doing serious work on a problem now, a

  trying to poke holes in it and find ways to im-

  smart person or society will do so. If they

  prove and expand it. What most scientists in a

  don’t, they may soon find that things have got-

  field believe at a given point in time is that pic-

  ten so out of hand that it may become impos-

  ture that best fits all the observations made to

  sible to undo the damage.

  date. They’re all well aware that the current

  That’s the big, immediate threat that I see

  model is probably not the last word, but is the

  from the current administration. When many

  best currently available—by rigorous standards

  of the leaders of a nation not only appear to

  of evidence and logic, not just whatever some

  lack even the most basic understanding of

  person or group would like to be true.

  how science works and why it’s
important,

  The smart money bets on taking actions

  but also seem proud of their ignorance and

  that make sense in the light of the best avail-

  contemptuous of those who don’t share it,

  able knowledge. Yes, it’s likely that a some-

  how likely is that nation to foster any real

  what better version will be developed later.

  progress against the genuinely big problems it

  It’s even remotely conceivable that something

  faces? And when you consider that much of

  about the current best model will turn out to

  the rest of the world has (at least until recent-

  be flat-out wrong, but that doesn’t happen

  ly) looked to the U.S. for leadership in such

  very often. Contrary to a popular misconcep-

  matters, what happens if we back away from

  tion, for example, Einstein’s theory of relativi-

  the responsibility we’ve accepted and the

  ty did not prove that the classical mechanics

  progress we’ve already made, and everybody

  of Sir Isaac Newton was all wrong, but just ex-

  else says, “Well, if they’re not going to do any-

  panded on it. Newtonian mechanics worked

  thing, I’m not either”?

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