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  AFTER THE SHEIKHS

  ‘It is almost forty years since the publication of Fred Halliday’s landmark book Arabia Without Sultans. Now, in the wake of the Arab spring, another young British academic has written an important account of prospects for the Gulf region … Orientalist special pleading doesn’t get a look in. This is an unsentimental story of hard-nosed political calculation, conspicuous consumption, opaque budgets and sovereign wealth funds.’

  Ian Black, The Guardian

  ‘What is the secret of the Gulf monarchies’ survival? There are numerous reasons. The support of Western powers, oil wealth and an effective secret police are among them. But in this exceptionally argued book, Christopher Davidson concentrates on the prime reason: the Gulf monarchies enjoy considerable legitimacy from their populations. … This fine-tuned monarchical resilience, Davidson argues, cannot be sustained for much longer. Immense internal pressures are building up and the pressure-cooker is about to explode. Davidson marshals an impressive array of evidence.’

  Ziauddin Sardar, The Independent

  ‘Britain and the US are uncritical friends of the hereditary Gulf rulers; but what if they are likely to collapse, as Christopher Davidson convincingly predicts? It would be folly to ignore the writing on the wall for these insatiably greedy elites; Davidson’s warning should be on the desk of every Foreign Office Minister.’

  Lord Avebury, vice-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Human Rights Group

  ‘Davidson argues that the Gulf regimes will be gone—at least in their current form—within the next two to five years. This audacious prediction should not be lightly dismissed. The dynamics he analyses and the facts he has gathered, based on long-term observation of the region, provide tantalising clues that profound change may indeed be at close hand.’

  Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College

  ‘After the Sheikhs is a book of tremendous value. It applies a rigorously constructed theoretical framework to a rich array of empirical data in order to assess the long-term survivability of some of the world’s last authoritarian holdouts. For anyone interested in understanding the post-2011 Middle East, this is essential reading.’

  Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, Georgetown University, Qatar

  ‘At a time when the Gulf Kingdoms arrogantly boast of having avoided the fate of their neighbours in the revolutions of the Arab Spring, this book provides a convincing counter-narrative and a powerful warning to rulers who treat their countries as personal fiefdoms.’

  Waleed Abu Alkair, head of Monitor of Human Rights in Saudi Arabia

  ‘This book must be read by every Western policymaker betting on the status quo in the GCC, by every pro-democracy activist struggling to realise Davidson’s predicted outcome, and by every GCC citizen dreaming of a better future but made to fear the worst if change was to come.’

  Ala’a Shehabi, writer, pro-democracy activist, founder, Bahrain Watch

  AFTER THE SHEIKHS

  The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

  CHRISTOPHER M. DAVIDSON

  Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education.

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  Copyright © 2013 by Oxford University Press

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  Published by Oxford University Press, Inc

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  Published in the United Kingdom in 2013 by C. Hurst & Co. (Publishers) Ltd.

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  All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.

  Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

  Davidson, Christopher M. (Christopher Michael)

  After the sheikhs : the coming collapse of the gulf monarchies / Christopher Davidson.

  p. cm.

  Summary: “Noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to”

  — Provided by publisher.

  ISBN 978-0-19-933064-5 (hardback)

  1. Persian Gulf States—Politics and government—21st century. 2. Saudi Arabia—Politics and government—21st century. 3. Monarchy—Persian Gulf States. 4. Monarchy—Saudi

  Arabia. I. Title.

  JQ1840.D38 2013

  320.9536—dc23

  2013014438

  1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2

  Printed in India

  on Acid-Free Paper

  CONTENTS

  Preface and Acknowledgements

  Acronyms

  Introduction

  The revolutions that never came

  Explaining monarchical survival

  Further explanations

  1. State Formation and Economic Development

  Origins of the Gulf monarchies

  Britain and the early order

  Independence and state formation

  Economic development trajectories

  2. Explaining Survival—Domestic Matters

  Distributing wealth

  National elites

  Co-opting expatriates

  Cults of personality

  Heritage and history

  Co-opting religion

  Environmental credentials

  3. Explaining Survival—External Matters

  Development assistance and international charity

  Active neutrality: peacekeeping and mediation

  Soft power in the West: strategic investments and development assistance

  Soft power in the West: cultural institutions

  Soft power in the West: financing universities and manipulating research

  Soft power in the East: China and Japan

  4. Mounting Internal Pressures

  Resources, populations, and subsidies

  Voluntary unemployment

  Squandering wealth

  Poverty and real unemployment

  Discrimination, statelessness, and sectarianism

  Censorship and limiting expression

  5. Mounting External Pressures

  Welcoming foreigners and eroding legitimacy

  Western bases and armaments

  Antagonising Iran

  Israel: the unholy alliance

  Division and disunity

  Interference and coups d’état

  6. The Coming Collapse

  Evolving opposition

  Modernising forces

  Countering the Arab Spring: the wrong side of history

  Bahrain: rage and revolution

  Oman: protests and promises

  Saudi Arabia: the cracks appearing

  Kuwait: ‘The People’s Spring’

  United Arab Emirates: opposition emerges

  Qatar: champion or charlatan?

  Conclusion

  Postscript

  Notes

  Bibliography

  Index

  PREFACE AND AC
KNOWLEDGEMENTS

  I began researching and writing After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies in summer 2009 from the confines of my temporary office at Kyoto University. The original idea for the book, however, occurred to me back in 2002, when I was still writing up my PhD. Intrigued by several frank and discreet discussions when living in the UAE’s northernmost emirate of Ra’s al-Khaimah, I was determined to burrow beneath the hype and gauge the true extent of loyalty to traditional monarchies in such states, especially in communities with less favourable economic circumstances. Since then, much has changed in the region, with oil price shocks, credit crunches, property bubbles, terror campaigns, rampant sectarianism, and of course full blown revolutions on its doorstep. Although largely unforeseen and at first difficult to understand, I found that most of these events and their associated impacts helped to strengthen my thesis and—more importantly—they strengthened my resolve to finish the manuscript as soon as possible. Although the book was never intended to be a crystal ball it is worth noting that the original, 2009 version forecast the collapse of most of the Gulf monarchies within the next decade. In contrast, this final 2012 version contends that most of these regimes—at least in their present form—will be gone within the next two to five years.

  A very large number of individuals deserve my thanks. Over the past few years they have provided encouragement, fact-checking, fascinating pieces of information, and—on occasion—some necessary criticism. These include academics, human rights and pro-democracy activists, members of several political societies and religious organisations, government employees from all six gulf monarchies and neighbouring states, and of course a small army of concerned citizens and expatriates. I am also very thankful to the following universities for inviting me to give lectures on earlier, prototype versions of this book: the London School of Economics, Oxford, St. Andrews, Yale, Stanford, and Otago. The feedback I received from such well-informed audiences undoubtedly helped me shape my thoughts.

  Above all I thank my indefatigable publisher, Michael Dwyer, and all of his team at C. Hurst & Co.

  ACRONYMS

  ADBIC

  Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation

  ADEC

  Abu Dhabi Executive Council

  ADFAD

  Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Development

  ADFD

  Abu Dhabi Fund for Development

  ADFEC

  Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company

  ADIA

  Abu Dhabi Investment Authority

  ADNCC

  Abu Dhabi National Consultative Council

  ADNOC

  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company

  AQAP

  Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula

  Aramco

  Arabian American Oil Company

  ATP

  Association of Tennis Professionals

  Bapco

  Bahrain Petroleum Company

  BCHR

  Bahrain Centre for Human Rights

  CENTCOM

  US Central Command

  CEO

  chief executive office

  CIA

  Central Intelligence Agency (of the US)

  CNPC

  China National Petroleum Corporation

  COM

  Council of Ministers (of the UAE)

  DIC

  Dubai International Capital

  DIFC

  Dubai International Financial Centre

  DLF

  Dhofar Liberation Front

  DPW

  Dubai Ports World

  EAD

  Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi

  ECHR

  Emirates Centre for Human Rights

  EDB

  Economic Development Board (of Bahrain)

  EMAL

  Emirates Aluminium

  ENOC

  Emirates National Oil Company

  EPPCO

  Emirates Petroleum Products Company

  F1

  Formula One

  FIFA

  Fédération International de Football Association

  FNC

  Federal National Council (of the UAE)

  FTA

  free trade agreement

  GCC

  Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

  GDP

  gross domestic product

  HH

  his highness

  HIV

  human immunodeficiency virus

  HRH

  his royal highness

  ICBC

  Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

  ICC

  International Criminal Court

  ICD

  Investment Corporation of Dubai

  IDEX

  International Defence Exhibition (of Abu Dhabi)

  IMF

  International Monetary Fund

  IPIC

  International Petroleum Investment Company (of Abu Dhabi)

  IPC

  Iraqi Petroleum Company

  IRENA

  International Renewable Energy Agency

  ISP

  internet service provider

  JAFZ

  Jebel Ali Free Zone (of Dubai)

  JETRO

  Japan External Trade Organisation

  JODCO

  Japan Oil Development Company

  KAUST

  King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

  KCIC

  Kuwait-China Investment Company

  KFAS

  Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences

  KFAED

  Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development

  KIA

  Kuwait Investment Authority

  KIPCO

  Kuwait Projects Company

  LSE

  London School of Economics and Political Science

  NYU

  New York University

  ODA

  official development assistance

  OECD

  Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

  OPEC

  Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

  P&O

  Peninsula and Orient Steam Navigation Company

  PDRY

  People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen

  PFLOAP

  Popular Front for the Liberation of the Occupied Arabian Gulf

  PRC

  People’s Republic of China

  PGA

  Professional Golfers Association

  PIN

  personal identification number

  QIA

  Qatar Investment Authority

  QPC

  Qatar Petroleum Company

  QSI

  Qatar Sports Investments

  QE2

  Queen Elizabeth 2 cruise liner

  RAND

  Research and Development Corporation

  SABIC

  Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corporation

  SCR

  Supreme Council of Rulers (of the UAE)

  Sinopec

  China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation

  SMS

  short message service

  SPC

  Supreme Petroleum Council (of the UAE)

  TDIC

  Tourism and Development Investment Company (of Abu Dhabi)

  UAE

  United Arab Emirates

  UCL

  University College London

  UK

  United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)

  UN

  United Nations

  UNDP

  United Nations Development Programme

  UNESCO

  United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organisation

  UNICEF

  United Nations Children’s Fund

  UNRWA

  United Nations Relief and Works Agency

  UNSC

  UN Security Council


  US

  United States (of America)

  USSR

  Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

  VAT

  value added tax

  WTO

  World Trade Organisation

  ZCCF

  Zayed Centre for Coordination and Follow-Up

  INTRODUCTION

  Central to the stability of the world’s oil and gas industries and home to the birthplace of Islam, Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours—the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain—have long fascinated scholars, diplomats, and journalists. In recent years international interest in the ‘Gulf monarchies’ of the Arabian Peninsula has soared. Not only have they played a key role in the War on Terror—on both sides of the conflict—but they also now account for the lion’s share of the Arab World’s gross domestic product1 founded on ever-rising trade flows, financial zones, tourism, and even real estate sectors.

  Since their formation and in some cases independence in the mid-twentieth century, the Gulf monarchies have remained governed by highly autocratic and—as many have argued—seemingly anachronistic regimes. Nevertheless, their rulers have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite having bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on largely conservative societies. Obituaries for these traditional polities have frequently been penned—in some cases by leading commentators—but even now, well into the twenty-first century, these absolutist, almost medieval entities still appear to defy their critics. If anything, with the 2011and 2012 ‘Arab Spring’ revolutions that have been sweeping aside the region’s republics and accelerating the fall of other incumbent presidents, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East’s only real bastion of stability. Even when violence and unrest erupted in some of their cities, this was largely contained, and the integrity of monarchy as a legitimate political system was ostensibly maintained. After all, as the lickspittle spokesmen and legions of public relations consultants employed by the Gulf monarchies are usually quick to point out, these states are somehow different: they are not ‘dictatorships’ and should thus be immune from precipitate political upheaval.