This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Read online

  Edward III (king of England), xxix, 51, 55, 56, 69b

  Edward VI (king of England), 175

  Eichengreen, Barry, 12, 83, 348t, 349t, 350t, 353t, 355t, 356t, 359t, 362t, 364t, 365t, 369t, 370t, 379t, 383t, 388t, 390t, 394n8, 405n8, 407n16

  ESFDB. See European State Finance Database

  ESRI, 324t

  Estadisticas Historicas de España: Siglos XIX–XX (Spain), 333t, 338t, 343t

  European State Finance Database (ESFDB), 39, 89f, 302t, 303t, 304t, 316t, 318t, 319t, 333t, 395n7

  Felton, Andrew, 403n1

  Ferguson, Niall, 69b, 393n2, 393n5, 397n1, 403n1

  Finnish Historical National Accounts, 297t

  Fischer, Stanley, 125, 400n8, 403n1, 403n3

  Fisher, Irving, 76, 398n11

  Flandreau, Marc, 12, 296t, 300t, 301t, 307t, 308t, 309t, 314t, 320t, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 337t, 338t, 341t, 342t, 396n21

  Flath, David, 370t

  Floyd, John E., 297t

  Folkerts-Landau, David, 211

  Fostel, Ana, 393n1

  Francis I (king of France), 88b

  Frankel, Jeffrey A., 5–6, 393n2, 393n3

  Frankel, S. Herbert, 332t, 334t

  Fratzscher, Marcel, 408n1

  Friedman, Milton, 292, 393n7, 403n1, 408n8

  Frydl, Edward J., 163, 164t, 402n30, 402n33

  Gale, Douglas, 393n2

  Garber, Peter, 211

  Garcia Vizcaino, José, 330t, 335t, 340t

  Garner, Richard, 36, 296t, 297t, 299t, 395n5

  Gavin, Michael, 400n5

  Gayer, Arthur D., 78f, 323t

  Geanakoplos, John, 393n1

  Gelabert, Juan, 89f

  Gerdrup, Karsten R., 159, 402n24

  Gersovitz, Mark, 55, 57, 58, 65, 397n4, 397n6

  Gertler, Mark, 146, 212, 393n6, 401n7, 401n9, 404n23

  GFD. See Global Financial Data

  Global Financial Data (GFD), 35, 37, 39, 161f, 190f, 218f, 263f, 266f, 296t, 297t, 298t, 299t, 300t, 301t, 302t, 303t, 304t, 307t, 308t, 309t, 310t, 320t, 321t, 322t, 323t, 326t, 330t, 333t, 335t, 336t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 342t

  Global Price and Income History Group (GPIHG), 36, 296t

  Godinho, V. Magalhaes, 305t, 306t

  Goldstein, Morris, 280t, 407n27, 408n1

  Gopinath, Gita, 77, 398n14, 400n5

  Gordon, David B., 397n23

  Gorton, Gary, 401n1

  GPIHG. See Global Price and Income History Group

  Greenspan, Alan, 208–9, 212, 291, 404n9

  Groningen Growth and Development Centre, 37

  Grytten, Ola, 299t, 309t

  Guidotti, Pablo, 400n11

  Gulbenkian, Calouste, 397n1

  Guscina, Anastasia, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t, 396n24, 399n1

  Hagberg, T., 359t, 362t, 363t, 376t, 377t, 383t, 384t

  Hahm, Joon-Ho, 371t

  Hale, David, 83b, 398n17

  Hamilton, Earl, 300t

  Hausmann, Ricardo, 211–12, 404n21

  Henry II (king of France), 88b

  Henry VII (king of England), 175

  Henry VIII (king of England), 87–89, 175

  Historical Statistics of Japan, 332t, 337t, 341t

  Historical Statistics of the United States (HSOUS), 36, 37, 395n5

  Hoffman, P. T., 296t, 297t, 298t, 299t, 300t

  Hoggarth, Glenn, 402n30

  Homer, Sidney, 375t

  Hong Kong University, 324t

  HSOUS. See Historical Statistics of the United States

  Hsu, Leonard Shih-Lien, 297t

  Huang, Feng-Hua, 124f, 328t, 330t

  IMF. See International Monetary Fund

  Imlah, A. H., 79f, 323t

  Institutional Investor, 233f, 280t, 286t, 395n7

  Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, 315t, 335t

  Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (Portuguese Statistical Agency), 333t, 338t, 343t

  International Institute of Social History, 36

  International Monetary Fund (IMF): on best practices, 401n9

  and confidence, xli–xlii

  on consumer price indexes, 36

  in debt crisis of 1990s, 18, 94

  on debt thresholds, 394n6

  on domestic public debt, xxxi

  and duration of external default, 81–83

  on exports, 39

  frequency of default since creation of, 62

  on global economy before subprime crisis, 214

  Government Financial Statistics, 231t

  guarantees of, for public versus corporate default, 406n1

  International Financial Statistics (IFS), 35, 36, 131f, 132f, 134f, 135f, 217f, 218f, 221f, 229f, 301t, 302t, 303t, 304t, 307t

  in Mexican domestic default, 14, 108b

  on national accounts, 39

  on prices, 35, 36

  on public debt, 40–42

  in public debt transparency, xxxiv, 281–82

  in Second Great Contraction, 239, 240

  Special Data Dissemination Standard, 42, 282

  World Economic Outlook (WEO), 25f, 35, 36, 40, 78f, 131f, 132f, 134f, 135f, 165f, 166f, 214, 219f, 220f, 231t, 262, 263, 263f, 264f, 266f, 296t, 297t, 298t, 299t, 300t, 301t, 307t, 308t, 310t, 320t, 321t, 322t, 323t, 394n2, 405n7, 407n15

  Jácome, Luis, 10, 74f, 148t, 150t, 151t, 153t, 205f, 252f, 350t, 353t, 358t, 360t, 361t, 366t, 367t, 374t, 376t, 377t, 378t, 391t, 394n5, 401n1

  James, Harold, 351t, 352t, 358t, 361t, 362t, 364t, 365t, 367t, 369t, 370t, 372t, 374t, 377t, 379t, 383t, 386t, 390t, 398n1

  Japan Real Estate Institute, 324t

  Jayachandran, Seema, 63, 397n17

  Jeanne, Olivier, 59, 159, 212, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t, 396n24, 397n12, 399n1, 402n23, 404n24

  Jefferson, Thomas, 398n2

  Johnson, H. Clark, 352t

  Jones, Chuck, 404n17

  Jonung, L., 359t, 362t, 363t, 376t, 377t, 383t, 384t

  Juarez, Benito, 12

  Jun, S. H., 298t

  Kaminsky, Graciela L., 6, 10, 39, 74f, 77, 148t, 150t, 151t, 153t, 155, 156f, 205f, 216t, 241, 249, 252f, 270, 271f, 279, 280t, 314t, 315t, 316t, 317t, 318t, 319t, 349t, 352t, 354t, 357t, 360t, 363t, 368t, 373t, 374t, 377t, 378t, 383t, 384t, 385t, 386t, 391t, 393n3, 393n4, 394n5, 395n12, 396n14, 398n14, 400n5, 401n2, 401n15, 401n18, 402n21, 402n27, 402n33, 404n26, 405n28, 406n1, 406n2, 407n14, 407n21, 407n26, 408n1, 408n3, 408n7

  Kaufman, Jeffrey A., 72f, 74f, 80f, 91t, 95t, 96t, 97t, 100t, 148t, 150t, 323t, 394n7

  Kehoe, Patrick J., 397n9

  Kim, Nak Nyeon, 308t

  Kimura, M., 298t

  Kindleberger, Charles P., xxvii, 88b, 250, 252, 271f, 292, 394n5, 397n5, 398n5, 398n7, 408n9

  Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 146, 401n8

  Klingebiel, Daniela, 10, 156, 216t, 348t, 349t, 350t, 351t, 352t, 353t, 354t, 355t, 356t, 357t, 358t, 359t, 360t, 361t, 362t, 363t, 365t, 366t, 367t, 368t, 369t, 370t, 371t, 372t, 373t, 374t, 375t, 376t, 377t, 378t, 379t, 380t, 381t, 382t, 383t, 384t, 385t, 386t, 388t, 390t, 391t, 392t, 394n5, 401n17, 404n26

  Kocherlakota, Narayana, 399n4

  Kookmin Bank, 325t

  Korthals Altes, W. L., 305t, 306t

  Kostelenos, George, 298t, 308t

  Kotlikoff, Lawrence J., 65, 397n21, 399n9

  Kremer, Michael, 63, 397n17

  Krugman, Paul, xliii, 211, 393n4, 404n17

  Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 356t

  Landes, David S., 308t, 316t, 328t

  Lazaretou, Sophia, 302t

  League of Nations: Annual Reports, 37

  on domestic public debt, 104f, 105, 105f, 106f, 107t, 117f

  International Currency Experience, 407n19

  on public debt, 41, 121f, 122f, 123f

  Statistical Abstract, 114t

  Statistical Year-book, 41, 82b, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t

  World Economic Survey, 263, 266f, 268t, 269t, 407n18

  L
eiderman, Leonardo, 398n13, 403n11

  Levandis, John Alexander, 328t, 331t

  Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 335t, 336t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t

  Lewis, J. B., 298t

  Lindert, Peter H., 12, 16b, 42, 72f, 74f, 80f, 305t, 306t, 328t, 329t, 394n8, 396n20

  Lizondo, J. Saul, 280t, 405n28, 408n1, 408n3

  Lu, Feng, 297t

  Lucas, Robert, 287

  Lula da Silva, Luiz Inácio, 53

  Ma, Debin, 298t

  MacDonald, James, 69b, 72f, 74f, 80f, 87t, 323t, 393n2, 394n7, 397n1, 398n3, 398n4, 403n3

  MacGregor, Gregor, 93b–94b, 399n10

  Maddison, Angus, 37, 38, 46t, 72f, 74f, 130f, 132f, 134f, 135f, 165f, 166f, 205f, 252f, 262, 264f, 311t, 312t, 313t, 314t, 396n9, 399n1, 407n17

  Malanima, Paolo, 305t, 306t

  Manasse, Paolo, 398n13

  Marichal, Carlos, 42, 93b, 328t, 329t, 393n1, 396n20

  Mauro, Paolo, 398n7

  Maximilian (emperor of Mexico), 12

  McConnell, Margaret, 256, 407n11

  McElderry, Andrea Lee, 394n6

  McGrattan, Ellen, 212

  Mellegers, Joost, 316t

  Mellon, Andrew, 397n1

  Mendoza, Enrique G., 158, 402n21

  Miller, Margaret S., 42, 329t, 396n20

  Ministère du Budget, des comptes public (France), 331t, 336t, 341t

  Ministerio de Hacienda (Chile), 330t, 340t

  Ministerio de Hacienda (Costa Rica), 330t, 336t, 340t

  Ministry of Finance (Ecuador), 331t, 336t, 341t

  Ministry of Finance (Egypt), 331t, 341t

  Ministry of Finance (Norway), 333t, 338t, 342t

  Mironov, Boris, 305t, 306t

  Mitchell, Brian R., 39, 79f, 121f, 122f, 167f, 168f, 169f, 296t, 297t, 301t, 314t, 315t, 316t, 317t, 318t, 319t, 323t, 396n14, 402n34

  Mitchell, Wesley C., 262, 405n2, 407n14

  Mizoguchi, Toshiyuki, 332t, 337t

  Monatsberichte des Österreichischen Institutes für Konjunkturforschung, 265f

  Monetary Authority (Singapore), 333t, 343t

  Moody’s Investor Service, 62, 280t

  Moody’s Magazine, 252f

  Moore, John, 146, 401n8

  Morton, John, 12

  Morton, Peter J., 42, 72f, 74f, 80f, 328t, 329t, 394n7, 396n20

  Mulder, Christian, 408n1

  Murshid, Antu Panini, 241–42, 406n3

  Nakamura, Leonard I., 349t

  National Accounts of the Netherlands, 309t

  Nationwide, 325t

  Neal, Larry, 241–42, 406n3, 406n5

  Neely, Christopher, 402n31

  New Zealand Treasury, 332t, 337t, 342t

  Noel, Maurer, 394n6

  Nordic Historical National Accounts, 308t

  Norges Bank, 163, 164t, 324t, 402n30

  North, Douglass, 65, 70b, 393n5, 397n3, 397n20

  Obstfeld, Maurice, 155, 156f, 210–11, 393n2, 397n2, 397n14, 401n14, 404n14, 404n15, 404n18

  OECD. See Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

  Øksendal, Lars, 376t

  O’Neill, Paul, 209

  Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 40, 229f, 331t

  O’Rourke, Kevin, 405n8, 407n16

  Otthon Centrum, 324t

  Oxford Latin American Economic History Database (OXLAD), 35, 37, 39, 40, 296t, 297t, 298t, 299t, 301t, 302t, 303t, 304t, 307t, 309t, 310t, 312t, 395n3

  OXLAD. See Oxford Latin American Economic History Database

  Ozmucur, Suleyman, 305t, 306t

  Page, William, 328t, 330t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 338t, 343t

  Pamuk, Sevket, 300t, 305t, 306t, 396n8

  Panizza, Ugo, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 335t, 336t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t

  Pattillo, Catherine, 408n1

  Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla, 401n16

  Peng, Kaixiang, 297t

  Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 256, 407n11

  Permanent TSB, 324t

  Perotti, Roberto, 400n5

  Persson, Torsten, 65, 397n2, 397n21

  Philip II (king of Spain), 70b–71b, 88b

  Philippon, Thomas, 162, 402n29, 404n12

  Pick, Franz, 36–37, 302t

  Prasad, Eswar, 399n4

  Prescott, Edward, 212

  Purcell, John F. H., 72f, 74f, 80f, 91t, 95t, 96t, 97t, 100t, 148t, 150t, 323t, 394n7

  Qian, Rong, 283, 286t, 288f, 408n6

  Quinn, Stephen, 334t

  Rajan, Raghuram, 59, 397n11, 402n33

  Reinhart, Carmen M., 6, 10, 23t, 25f, 27t, 37, 39, 72f, 74f, 77, 80f, 84b–85b, 87t, 91t, 95t, 96t, 97t, 100t, 117f, 148t, 150t, 151t, 153t, 155, 156f, 157, 158t, 167f, 168f, 170f, 190f, 192f, 205f, 216t, 237f, 241, 249, 252f, 270, 271f, 279, 280t, 283, 286t, 288f, 311t, 312t, 313t, 314t, 315t, 316t, 317t, 318t, 319t, 323t, 330t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 348t, 349t, 352t, 354t, 357t, 358t, 360t, 361t, 363t, 366t, 367t, 368t, 371t, 373t, 374t, 377t, 378t, 380t, 382t, 383t, 384t, 385t, 386t, 391t, 393n1, 393n3, 393n4, 394n5, 395n6, 395n10, 395n12, 396n13, 396n14, 396n16, 396n24, 398n1, 398n6, 398n10, 398n13, 398n14, 398n15, 398n18, 398n19, 399n1, 399n2, 400n3, 400n4, 400n5, 401n2, 401n4, 401n15, 401n18, 402n19, 402n20, 402n21, 402n22, 402n27, 402n33, 403n1, 403n4, 403n7, 403n9, 404n26, 405n3, 405n28, 405n31, 405n33, 406n1, 406n2, 406n5, 406n7, 407n14, 407n21, 407n23, 407n24, 407n26, 407n28, 408n1, 408n3, 408n4, 408n5, 408n6, 408n7

  Reinhart, Vincent R., 157, 158t, 398n15, 401n18, 402n19, 402n20, 405n31, 405n33, 406n7

  Reporte Immobiliario, 324t

  Riksgälden (Sweden), 334t, 339t, 343t

  Roberts, Gordon S., 356t

  Rogoff, Kenneth S., 23t, 25f, 27t, 37, 56–57, 62, 72f, 74f, 80f, 84b–85b, 87t, 91t, 95t, 96t, 97t, 100t, 148t, 150t, 157, 167f, 168f, 170f, 190f, 192f, 210–11, 237f, 271f, 283, 311t, 312t, 313t, 314t, 323t, 330t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 348t, 367t, 378t, 380t, 393n1, 393n2, 393n4, 395n6, 395n10, 395n14, 396n13, 396n16, 396n24, 396n26, 397n2, 397n7, 397n8, 397n9, 397n14, 397n15, 398n1, 398n6, 398n10, 398n18, 398n19, 399n1, 399n2, 400n3, 401n4, 402n22, 403n4, 403n7, 403n9, 404n14, 404n15, 404n18, 404n26, 405n3, 406n5, 407n24, 407n28, 408n4, 408n5

  Rolnick, Arthur J., 404n25

  Rose, Andrew K., 5–6, 393n2, 393n3

  Roubini, Nouriel, 211, 398n13, 404n16

  Sachs, Jeffrey, 60, 397n13

  Samuelson, Paul, 250, 407n8

  S&P. See Standard and Poor’s

  Sanhueza, Gonzalo, 402n30

  Sargent, Thomas, 400n7, 403n1

  Saturday Evening Post, 16b

  Savastano, Miguel A., 23t, 25f, 27t, 72f, 74f, 80f, 84b–85b, 87t, 91t, 95t, 96t, 97t, 100t, 117f, 148t, 150t, 192f, 283, 323t, 395n10, 396n24, 398n1, 398n6, 398n10, 398n18, 398n19, 399n1, 399n2, 400n3, 400n4, 403n7, 407n28, 408n5

  Schwartz, Anna J., 292, 393n7, 403n1, 408n8

  Scutt, G. P. Symes, 367t

  Setser, Brad, 211, 404n16

  Shergold, Peter, 296t

  Shiller, Robert, 207f, 217f, 404n6

  Shin, Inseok, 371t

  Shleifer, Andrei, 393n1

  Simon, John, 256, 407n11

  Sinclair, David, 398n9

  Söderberg, Johan, 305t, 306t

  Soley Güell, Tomas, 330t, 336t, 340t

  South Africa Reserve Bank, 333t, 338t, 343t

  Stalin, Joseph, 397n1

  Standard and Poor’s (S&P), 11t, 12, 62, 72f, 74f, 80f, 91t, 95t, 96t, 97t, 100t, 117f, 148t, 150t, 207f, 217f, 250, 263f, 323t, 325t

  State Treasury Finland, 331t

  StatFin Online Service, 324t

  Statistical Abstract Relating to British India, 332t, 336t, 341t

  Statistics Canada, 297t, 330t, 335t, 340t

  Statistics Iceland, 324t

  Statistics New Zealand, 299t, 332t, 337t, 342t

  Sturzenegger, Federico, 211–12, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 335t, 336t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t, 404n21

  Suarez, Javier, 402n26

  Summerhill, William, 328t

  Sundararajan, Vasudevan, 401n1

&nb
sp; Suter, Christian, 72f, 74f, 80f, 323t, 394n7

  Sutton, Gregory D., 405n29

  Svensson, Lars E. O., 65, 397n21

  Sylla, Richard, 375t

  Tabellini, Guido, 65–66, 137, 397n2, 397n22, 399n9, 401n9

  Taylor, Alan M., 12, 155, 156f, 243t, 349t, 401n14

  TED. See Total Economy Database

  Teichova, Alice, 369t

  Temin, Peter, 365t, 383t

  Terray, Abbe, 87

  Terrones, Marco, 158, 402n21

  ’t Hart, Marjolein, 375t

  Thatcher, Margaret, 230

  Tomz, Michael, 54, 397n3

  Total Economy Database (TED), 37, 130f, 132f, 134f, 135f, 165f, 166f, 311t, 312t, 313t, 314t, 396n9

  Treasury Department, U.S., 221f

  Treasury Direct (United States), 334t, 343t

  Triner, Gail D., 353t

  Turkish Treasury, 334t, 339t, 343t

  Turner, Philip, 407n27

  U.K. Debt Management Office, 334t

  Umemura, Mataji, 332t, 337t

  UN. See United Nations

  Unger, Richard W., 37, 176t, 177t, 178f, 305t, 306t, 396n8

  United Kingdom National Statistics, 323t

  United Nations (UN): Department of Economic Affairs, 41, 124f

  on domestic public debt, 104f, 105, 105f, 106f, 107t

  on national accounts, 39

  on public debt, 41, 121f, 122f, 123f

  Statistical Yearbook, 124f, 328t, 329t, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 335t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 339t, 340t, 341t, 342t, 343t

  University of California–Davis, 36

  Ursúa, José F., 250, 252, 253f, 254f, 347t, 402n33, 407n6, 407n7, 407n14

  Vale, Bent, 164, 402n32

  Van der Eng, Pierre, 308t, 309

  Vanplew, W., 296t

  Van Riel, Arthur, 299t

  Van Zanden, Jan Luiten, 299t, 300t, 305t, 306t, 308t

  Végh, Carlos A., 39, 77, 241, 314t, 315t, 316t, 317t, 318t, 319t, 395n12, 396n14, 398n14, 400n5, 402n27, 403n1, 406n2, 408n7

  Velde, Francois, 403n1

  Ventura, Jaume, 397n18

  Vishny, Robert W., 393n1

  Vogler, R., 384t

  Wagner, Richard, 393n3

  Wallis, John, 401n10

  Wall Street Journal, 219, 220f

  Weidenmier, Marc, 241–42, 406n3, 406n5

  Weingast, Barry, 65, 70b, 393n5, 397n3, 397n20, 401n10

  Werner, Alejandro, 403n12

  Williamson, Jeffrey G., 35, 296t, 297t, 298t, 299t, 300t, 301t, 395n2, 395n3

  Willis, Parker H., 394n5

  Winkler, Max, 174, 328t, 393n1, 394n7, 398n2, 403n2

  Wolf, Martin, 404n18

  Woodford, Michael, 399n8

  World Bank, 394n3

  on best practices, 401n9

  in debt crisis of 1990s, 94

  Global Development Finance (GDF), 23t, 24t, 25t, 27t, 40–41, 42, 332t, 336t, 337t, 338t, 341t