The Economics of Artificial Intelligence Read online

  ture. It is also possible, even likely, that many people will not share in those

  benefi ts. Economists are well positioned to contribute to a research agenda

  of documenting and understanding the often intangible changes associated

  with AI and its broader economic implications.

  Realizing the benefi ts of AI is far from automatic. It will require eff ort

  and entrepreneurship to develop the needed complements, and adaptability

  at the individual, organizational, and societal levels to undertake the associ-

  ated restructuring. Theory predicts that the winners will be those with the

  lowest adjustment costs and that put as many of the right complements in

  place as possible. This is partly a matter of good fortune, but with the right

  road map, it is also something for which they, and all of us, can prepare.

  gs

  edw

  (5)

  10 la

  allo

  0.0857

  (0.278)

  1.949***

  (0.624)

  0.009

  0.136

  0.911***

  0.023

  0.158

  0.910**

  0.030

  50

  (0.233)

  (0.257)

  50

  (0.311)

  (0.412)

  50

  gs

  edw

  (4)

  4 la

  allo

  0.0857

  (0.242)

  1.949***

  (0.545)

  0.009

  0.136

  0.911***

  0.023

  0.158

  0.910**

  0.030

  50

  (0.208)

  (0.244)

  50

  (0.266)

  (0.368)

  50

  gs

  edw

  (3)

  3 la

  allo

  0.0857

  (0.227)

  1.949***

  (0.511)

  0.009

  0.136

  0.911***

  0.023

  0.158

  0.910**

  0.030

  50

  (0.197)

  (0.233)

  50

  (0.246)

  (0.341)

  50

  gs

  edw

  (2)

  2 la

  allo

  0.0857

  (0.207)

  1.949***

  (0.465)

  0.009

  0.136

  0.911***

  0.023

  0.158

  0.910***

  0.030

  50

  (0.181)

  (0.216)

  50

  (0.221)

  (0.306)

  50

  g

  edw

  (1)

  1 la

  allo

  0.0857

  (0.177)

  1.949***

  (0.398)

  0.009

  0.136

  0.911***

  0.023

  0.158

  0.910***

  0.030

  50

  (0.158)

  (0.188)

  50

  (0.187)

  (0.259)

  50

  wth

  ors with longer time dependence

  o

  wtho

  d err

  vity gr

  oducti

  wtho

  est standar

  W

  bor pr

  wth

  ey-

  o

  w

  , la

  , TFP gr

  , TFP (util. adj.) gr

  ge

  ge

  ge

  wth

  a

  a

  a

  o

  er

  vity gr

  er

  wth

  er

  .

  v

  v

  o

  v

  el.v el. el.

  ear a

  oducti

  ear a

  ear a

  v

  v

  - y

  - y

  - y

  entheses

  essions with Ne

  ge pr

  ge TFP gr

  ge TFPua gr

  cent le

  , ten

  a

  , ten

  a

  , ten

  a

  cent le

  cent le

  egr

  er

  er

  er

  R

  v

  v

  v

  ors in par

  essions

  ear a

  essions

  ear a

  essions

  ear a

  t the 1 per

  egr

  - y

  egr

  - y

  egr

  - y

  d err

  t the 5 per

  t the 10 per

  est r

  tions

  tions

  tions

  a

  ed

  est r

  a

  ed

  est r

  a

  ed

  cant a

  cant a

  - W

  - W

  - W

  cant a

  ey

  evious ten

  Standar

  - squar

  ey

  evious ten

  - squar

  ey

  evious ten

  - squar

  w

  w

  w

  ppendix

  able 1A.1

  Pr

  Pr

  Pr

  A

  T

  Ne

  Constant

  Observ

  R

  Ne

  Constant

  Observ

  R

  Ne

  Constant

  Observ

  R

  Note:

  ***Signifi

  **Signifi

  *Signifi

  Artifi cial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox 53

  Table 1A.2

  Parameters for the toy economy J- curve

  Net

  Net capital

  Investment

  Capital stock

  Time

  investment

  stock

  growth rate

  growth rate

  Output

  0.0

  1.0

  10.0

  10,000.0

  1.0

  15.0

  25.0

  14.0

  1.5

  10,500.0

  2.0

  80.0

  105.0

  4.3

  3.2

  11,025.0

  3.0

  160.0

  265.0

  1.0

  1.5

  11,576.3

  4.0

  220.0

  485.0

  0.4

  0.8

  12,155.1

  5.0

  250.0

  735.0

  0.1

  0.5

  12,762.8

  6.0

  220.0

  955.0

  – 0.1

  0.3

  13,401.0

  7.0

  140.0

  1,095.0

  – 0.4

  0.1

  14,071.0

  8.0

  100.0

  1,195.0<
br />
  – 0.3

  0.1

  14,774.6

  9.0

  50.0

  1,245.0

  – 0.5

  0.0

  15,513.3

  10.0

  20.0

  1,265.0

  – 0.6

  0.0

  16,288.9

  11.0

  10.0

  1,275.0

  – 0.5

  0.0

  17,103.4

  12.0

  0.0

  1,275.0

  – 1.0

  0.0

  17,958.6

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